NGX Market Recap – Friday, December 5, 2025

Another robust end to the week for Nigerian equities as the NGX All Share Index (ASI) advanced by +1.08% to 145,476.15, taking the year-to-date (YTD) return to an impressive +42.51%. Market breadth was notably positive at 2.37x, with 45 advancers outpacing 19 decliners. Trading activity was vibrant—market turnover jumped +26.91% to ₦13.31bn with volumes climbing to 346.84m (+4.28% d/d). Investors’ attention was drawn to outsized moves in consumer, ETF, and financial sectors, while institutional participation dwarfed retail activity, signaling potent flows into blue chips and select growth names.
Below, we break down the day’s biggest stories, trends, and subtle market signals to keep you sharp for the week ahead.

Key Market Trends & Breadth

• Market Breadth: Healthy bull dominance with 45 advancers vs. 19 decliners (2.37x), underpinning strong momentum seen all week.
• Turnover Surge: +26.91% in traded value—suggests fresh liquidity, especially around big banks and large ETFs, despite only modest retail activity uptick.
• Volume Trend: Trading volume rose +4.28% from yesterday. Notably, institutional investors commanded 71.09% of volumes and 89.94% of value, driving bulk of today’s major moves.
• Unusual Volume: ZENITHBANK, UPDC, UPDCREIT, and MTNN traded at more than twice their 90-day average, highlighting institutional positioning.

Top Gainers & Losers – Day Highlights

Standout: UACN and MERVALUE ETF are driven by very high RSI readings (80.76 and 85.99), signaling overbought momentum—potential profit-taking ahead.

Standout: UNIONDICON and ABCTRANS have been persistent underperformers, both featuring among YTD laggards, with ABCTRANS’s RSI at a rock-bottom 13.65: extremely oversold levels.

Key Insights, Patterns & Predictions

• Turnover Impact: The surge in turnover amid positive breadth and high institutional participation is an accumulation signal—institutions buy up liquidity, often foreshadowing further upside in mega-caps (notably, banks and telecoms).
• Advancers > Decliners: The ratio (2.37x) confirms broad-based bullishness—many sectors are participating, not just isolated names.
• Unusual Volume Observations:
  • ZENITHBANK: Volume more than doubled 90-day average, institutional trades made up 96% of volume—indicative of major fund flows and likely index-related buying. Price closed +2.81% at 62.20 on strong technicals (RSI 46, MACD turning up).
  • MTNN and UPDCREIT: Both saw triple average volumes, pointing to significant block trades by smart money.
• YTD Trends:
  • Top Gainers: STANBICETF30 leads the pack (+345.95% YTD), joined by UACN (+193.78% YTD, new weekly high), and NCR—the latter with a massive RSI of 99.7—super-overbought.
  • Persistent Losers: UNIONDICON, ABCTRANS and LEGENDINT are consistently weak; ABCTRANS displays technical exhaustion with multi-timeframe losses and oversold RSI.
• Momentum Table Insights:
  • Bullish Crosses: UACN, MERVALUE exhibit RSI above 70 and positive MACD—momentum names, but also at risk of profit-taking as they near overbought zones.
  • Bearish Crosses: ABCTRANS headline oversold technicals (RSI 13.65, MACD negative), while UNIONDICON, VETGOODS all crossed below 15DMA—indicating fresh downside.
• Overlaps: A notable overlap is MERVALUE and VETGRIF30—both in the top daily gainers, high on 5-day returns, and with RSI overbought. Expect possible short-term exhaustion.

Contrarian Signals

• TRANSCOHOT: Price surged +9.71% but RSI cratered to 12.6 from 65+, and MACD negative. This mix signals a technical "dead cat bounce”—caution on chasing further upside.
• VETGOODS: Despite huge daily loss (-10.00%), the RSI is still healthy at 61.3, suggesting today’s drop may be a shakeout—not a true breakdown.
• CHAMPION (YTD Data): With RSI 54.4 (neutral) and bullish MACD, but -9.8% YTD: technical indicators diverge from price action, classic contrarian setup for bottom-fishers.

Sector Heatmaps & Institutional/Retail Activity

Note: Banking and ETFs are at the center of institutional activity and bullish signals—strong candidates for continued momentum if trend persists next week.

Dividend-Yield vs. Beta Matrix: Defensive Plays

Insight: These stocks combine defensive attributes (lower Beta) with reliable yield, ideal for capital preservation at times of volatility. Notably, many also appear in bullish momentum tables, corroborating ongoing institutional interest.

Institutional Clustering Alerts

• ZENITHBANK: 20.17% share of institutional value traded—stands out as the "institutional darling” for the day. Suggests further price stability and possible re-rating next week.
• MTNN, ACCESSCORP: Repeat institutional flows—potential sustained accumulation in these large-cap proxies.

Dividend Yield & Technical Momentum Overlap

• FCMB and FIDELITYBK: Appear in bullish tables, sporting yields above 5% and on technical uptrends (above 15DMA). Portfolio managers may continue to overweight.
• ZENITHBANK: In both bullish momentum and high institution lists; dividend, volume, and trend—a trifecta for conservative growth allocation.

Trader Playbook—Opportunities & Cautions

• Opportunities:
  • Banks (ZENITHBANK, FCMB, FIDELITYBK): Combine high volume, bullish signals, institutional inflow and decent yield—ideal for tactical momentum and "buy the dip” strategies.
  • MERVALUE, STANBICETF30: Leading gainers; but high RSI warrants trailing stops, position sizing, and close monitoring.
• Cautions:
  • UACN, MERVALUE: Overbought RSI (>80). Existing holders may lock in some gains; fresh entries risky here.
  • ABCTRANS, UNIONDICON: Technical exhaustion—avoid new buy bids till selling abates.
  • TRANSCOHOT: Bounce today despite RSI collapse—momentum traders should beware of whipsaw.

YTD Top Gainers & Losers

Market Trades Analysis: Retail vs Institutional

• Institutionals: 35.05% of trades, but commanded 71.09% of volume and a striking 89.94% of value. Institutions are steering market direction—notably banks and ETFs.
• Top Institutional Names:
  • ZENITHBANK: +2.81%—majority institutional, >20% trade value share. Also aligns with unusual volume, bullish momentum, and sector buy themes.
  • MTNN, ACCESSCORP: Block trades and high turnover continue, strong technical backing.
  • PRESCO, ARADEL: Large volumes, steady sectors—potential selective sector rotation.
• Top Retail Names:
  • MTNN, ACCESSCORP, ZENITHBANK, GTCO, ELLAHLAKES
  • Retail trades traffic heavily in blue chips as well as speculative small/mid-caps today (GTCO, ELLAHLAKES). Notably, the overlap on ZENITHBANK and MTNN signals broad conviction across account types.
• Insight: When both institutional and retail activity focus on the same symbols (ZENITHBANK, MTNN, ACCESSCORP), these securities tend to display strong momentum and often set the near-term market tone. Momentum traders can track these names for short-term swing opportunities.

Quick Takeaways

• Banks, select ETFs remain the market’s growth core. High institutional flows and technical strength suggest dips are being bought.
• Beware of overbought signals on high-flyers (e.g., UACN, NCR, MERVALUE)—mean reversion risk is rising.
• Retail interest strong in blue chips and small caps, but only a fraction of daily volume—watch where the big money is flowing for persistent trends.
• Dividend + low beta stocks (Fidelity, Zenith) provide shield should market volatility increase into year-end.

Overall, the week closes out with broad-based strength, historic highs for many indices, but with a handful of overextended leaders flashing "proceed with caution” signals. As always, keep stops tight and watch for institutional follow-through in top volume names come Monday.